I Have What?
Posted in Miscellaneous on August 22nd, 2007 by JennyAfter doing some reading I have figured out what is going on in my head. Turns out I have all the symptoms of a…you are not going to believe this…all the symptoms of a, well, a cognitive bias. Oh boy. Do I need to see a doctor? I thought I was vaccinated! Am I contagious? How is it possible it is not a disease, especially with a name like that, but can still hurt me? How did I catch it? And the biggest question of all - how do I get rid of it?
My disbelief set in quickly. What? A cognitive bias? Oh, why can’t these darn people just write in normal language so that I can figure out what they are saying? They use huge, unpronounceable words and take 10 pages to say what I can in three sentences. Jeez, the way they explain things people might start jumping off bridges before they can understand what’s being said. Now I am not an expert, but they might want to consider you can’t fix people’s thinking if they’re not around anymore to have some fixing done.
Since cognitive biases are so common you might be afflicted too. So, I’ll share a bit more detail. The rough translation of the word cognitive is thinking and bias in this case means a tendency to think about things the wrong way. Yep, it is that simple. So it took them 30 pages to explain that a cognitive bias is when you think about certain things in a way that might seem right but is really wrong (well with some other five-syllable disclaimers thrown in, but trust me - more or less this is it).
From what I can gather I have a strain of cognitive bias called a planning fallacy. A planning fallacy, blah! Apparently this is not even a particularly interesting or unusual bias. It’s common and boring. I object! If there is something wrong with my head I want it to be spectacular, not just run of the mill. I want something special, maybe a Ludic fallacy or a Subadditivity effect. So my strain - the planning fallacy translated means my thinking about how long it would take to complete a plan seemed right but it was really wrong.
I have suffered from the symptoms for a long, long time; however, I never got an accurate diagnosis until now. I spent plenty of time feeling bad but could not quite put my finger on just what was wrong. Well, actually over the years more than a few people have pointed out there was a problem, they just did not know what to call it or have any real suggestions how to fix it. Instead they mostly got mad, sometimes really mad, and ordered me to straighten up, to be realistic, to take my head out of the clouds - well you get the picture.
I would get set to do something - could be just about anything - clean the house, start a work project, or head out on a walking adventure and create beautiful plans. I would spend hours generating these plans - detailed with timelines lovingly tied to every task. However, they were always at least slightly off. This might have been okay, but I believed in my plans so much that I would often pull them out and convince darn near anybody to sign on… It wasn’t that I was trying to fool people, it was just that I really believed in my planning. I believed it was right, but it was really wrong. Hmmm, this might explain a lot, yeah?
Okay, simple enough. Let’s fix me. Give me a shot, or a pill or something. Are you kidding? I’m supposed to be aware, double check my timelines and compare them to what actually happens, mostly just learn to negate my bias by paying lots of attention? What a lame prescription for getting better. I swear I heard about a couple of pills that work great. They come in red and blue. Maybe I should just take one. Ah, not sure the red or the blue? Blue or red? Can somebody help me out here… Hah! Just kidding, this is not a problem. Be aware, double-check and compare - nothing to it. I’ll be fixed in a day or two, no longer. What? An optimism bias? Oh, it’s time for you just to stop talking!
PS. This post is for my dear friend Erin who, while she just might suffer from many a cognitive bias, turns out planning fallacies aren’t one of them. I’m waving the white flag. My friend I solemnly concede you are in charge of all things planning in regards to walking as it turns out I’m sick, very sick indeed… I promise to be quiet and listen. Really and truly, I do. Promise that is.
August 22nd, 2007 at 12:29 pm
Eeek! I’ve been tracking cognitive bias issues too! It’s an epidemic! EVERYBODY PANIC!
But thanks for such a well-thought out breakdown. Many of us get used to jargon, so it’s good to talk straight once in a while.
August 22nd, 2007 at 1:35 pm
It’s amazing how much can be written about a simple idea. It’s even more amazing how if you write it in the correct way, you can get people to pay you money for something they already know.
Seriously, if you actually paid for access to the results of that study, wouldn’t you be annoyed?
August 22nd, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Rather than view your own bias as a potential problem, why not view it as one of many facets of your own uniqueness? As you continue your journey through life, perspective determines whether your learn or not and what. “It” may not always be about you. Consider what your perceived bias teaches you about other people as well.
August 22nd, 2007 at 5:31 pm
A cognitive bias for planning? Now isn’t that interesting. No really! I find that very interesting because I think that everyone in my workplace that gets promoted, all of a sudden develops this bias … they forget that it took task x 3 weeks to do because now they’re giving you 1 week for it.
I believe this affliction has taken over my managers. They need help NOW!
August 22nd, 2007 at 7:11 pm
All so simple is it? *cough*hindsightbias*cough*
Jason: I suspect that if you were one of the people for whom the article was intended (it’s an extract from an upcoming book), and you did pay for it, you probably would be annoyed, but mostly because it points out the flawed thinking you regularly employ. (not you specifically, btw)
Jenny: Tongue in cheek and all, if someone who this was intended for did jump off a bridge before understanding it, we’d truly be better off without them. After all, would you place your life in the hands of someone unaware of the biases they’re subject to when making decisions which could cost you your life?
August 22nd, 2007 at 9:36 pm
Awww Jason,
I actually love the introductory paragraph. Funny how people all seem to get in similar thinking patterns huh? Kind of like everyone showing up at the bank within minutes of each other and going from no line to long line.
That’s one of my favorite articles
Liara,
Excellent point on what biases teach us about others.
I hear what you are saying it’s just I don’t think losing my biases would make me any less me but instead maybe more me. I also don’t suffer any illusions that by losing one bias I’d be “fixed” or anything.
Hey Dan,
Whatcha doing writing comments?? Chop, chop! You’ve got work to do!
Mark,
Hindsight biases, who me? Or are you referring to someone else? Ouch on the people jumping off the bridge! I’m not trying to kill people from something that’s curable…
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:06 pm
PS. But no Mark, you are right I wouldn’t put my fate in such a person’s hands - at least knowingly.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Jenny,
Thanks for turning over the planning duties to me. However, I like your best case scenario planning, it makes anything and everything seem possible. Coming down is just the difficult part.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Hah, hah! Anything and everything is possible - just not all at the same time!
Watch with you at the planning helm we’ll have a delightful time walking the remaining trails and not have to be leaving every morning at 3 a.m.!!
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:33 pm
Partly directed at you Jenny, partly at Jason :p
August 23rd, 2007 at 6:48 am
The 3 a.m. portion is what I like best. I don’t think that part is changing…
August 23rd, 2007 at 10:29 am
I think you’re probably right, Mark… which I suppose means it’s not me that is being targeted.
Jenny… your biases can’t make you less OR more you. You are who you are. What the biases do is take away from your conscious choice of who you are… you’re submitting to your subconscious. You are who you choose to be, but if you don’t choose consciously in regards to a specific aspect, then you leave it to your subconscious to decide.
Liara… you’re right, what you learn is determined by your perspective, but the more open that perspective (ie the less bias) is, the more things you will be open to learn.
August 23rd, 2007 at 7:23 pm
Jason,
The “me” I was describing was the image I have of myself (whatever that may be) which is impacted upon learning of how many simple and silly common thinking errors I routinely embrace.
Neither here nor there because at this point I’m still trying to define the concept of self and figure out just how consciousness and the subconscious interact with that concept. I’d love to talk about it more after I’ve done more reading, research and thinking…
August 23rd, 2007 at 11:11 pm
Jason, thinking that I’m right *after* I’ve said something could *also* be subject to hindsight bias… Heh, ok, now I’m just being facetious. Ok, more facetious
Jenny, for some heady stuff you might be interesting in the works of William James. But it might be best to work out your own thoughts given the wealth of info you’ve already gathered, before you chance messing with your headspace again
But if you want, here’s an in-depth analysis of his main works: http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/James/TaylorWoz.htm
August 24th, 2007 at 10:12 am
That’s one of my favorite topics to write about, Jenny… keep reading my stuff!
August 26th, 2007 at 11:51 am
Thanks for the link Mark. I actually read “The Varieties of the Religious Experience” years ago and boy was he a nightmare to read.
The more I read the more I realize just how large an impact James has had on thinking across a couple of disciplines so I’ll give him another shot. I’m hoping reading through the article you linked easing the way a bit… 
Gotcha Jason. Good to know, I’ll keep reading.